Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but both parties has has valuable insights to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
